Dancing With the Odds
Model Tracker
How the data-driven models the guys introduced this season are actually doing, across every qualifying game.
Shaun's College Blowout Model
Introduced on S4E2
31-2160% this season
Take the OVER when a team is favored by 24.5+ points and the total is under 55.5, the closer to 50 the better. About a 60% historical hit rate over roughly the last 10 college football seasons.
Every qualifying game this season counts here, whether or not the guys actually bet on it. Updated September 28, 2026.
Dennis's NFL Road Dog Model
Introduced on S4E4
Tier 1 — Playable
1-4-120% this season
Road underdog ATS when the total is 49 or higher. 57.1% hit rate, +9.9% ROI on 373 bets (~34/season) from 2015-2025, with both the 2015-20 and 2021-25 halves holding up on their own.
Tier 2a — Diluted
2-4-133% this season
Road underdog ATS when the total is 48 or higher. 55.6% hit rate, +6.8% ROI on 516 bets, about 40% more volume than Tier 1 for a 1.5-point weaker edge.
Tier 2b — Diluted
3-4-243% this season
Any road team ATS when the total is 48 or higher (adds road favorites, who hit only 53.0% on their own). 54.7% hit rate, +4.8% ROI on 812 bets.
Every qualifying game this season counts here, whether or not the guys actually bet on it. Updated September 28, 2026.
Aaron's Wind Model
Introduced on S4E5
1-0100% this season
Take the UNDER when wind is 15+ mph at kickoff. 56.8% hit rate going back 10 seasons. Graded using nflweather.com's sustained wind reading at each stadium.
Every qualifying game this season counts here, whether or not the guys actually bet on it. Updated September 28, 2026.