Model Tracker

How the data-driven models the guys introduced this season are actually doing, across every qualifying game.

Shaun's College Blowout Model

Introduced on S4E2

58% this season

Take the OVER when a team is favored by 24.5+ points and the total is under 55.5, the closer to 50 the better. About a 60% historical hit rate over roughly the last 10 college football seasons.

Every qualifying game this season counts here, whether or not the guys actually bet on it. Updated November 9, 2026.

Shaun's College Under Model

Introduced on S4E7

27-21

56% this season

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Take the UNDER when the favorite is laid between -7.5 and -14 and the spread-to-total ratio (spread divided by total) is between 0.20 and 0.25. Favorites in the -7.5 to -14 band have gone under about 61% of the time this season, and a ratio of 0.20-0.25 has been the sweet spot within it.

Every qualifying game this season counts here, whether or not the guys actually bet on it. Applied back to the start of the season (through November 7). Spreads and totals come from sportsbook lines that vary by a point or two between books, so a game right on the edge of the 0.20-0.25 band can shift. Updated November 9, 2026.

Dennis's NFL Road Dog Model

Introduced on S4E4

Tier 1 — Playable

7-7-1

50% this season

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Road underdog ATS when the total is 49 or higher. 57.1% hit rate, +9.9% ROI on 373 bets (~34/season) from 2015-2025, with both the 2015-20 and 2021-25 halves holding up on their own.

Tier 2a — Diluted

10-7-1

59% this season

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Road underdog ATS when the total is 48 or higher. 55.6% hit rate, +6.8% ROI on 516 bets, about 40% more volume than Tier 1 for a 1.5-point weaker edge.

Tier 2b — Diluted

16-12-2

57% this season

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Any road team ATS when the total is 48 or higher (adds road favorites, who hit only 53.0% on their own). 54.7% hit rate, +4.8% ROI on 812 bets.

Every qualifying game this season counts here, whether or not the guys actually bet on it. Updated November 9, 2026.

Aaron's Wind Model

Introduced on S4E5

3-1

75% this season

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Take the UNDER when wind is 15+ mph at kickoff. 56.8% hit rate going back 10 seasons. Graded using nflweather.com's sustained wind reading at each stadium.

Every qualifying game this season counts here, whether or not the guys actually bet on it. Updated November 9, 2026.